1997 - 香港地產主題泡沫
1998/8/28 - 香港政府入市干預
2000 - 科網主題泡沫
2007/7/6 - 美國取消 Uptick Rule
2008/9/18 - 多國央行入市干預 / 管制賣空 / 美三大投行消失 / AIG, FNM, FDM 被接管 / 富國收購華互
2008/10/10 - 多國央行減息半厘 / 入股銀行 / 流動性枯竭 / 拆息抽高
恆指10月27日,周一。恒生指數暴瀉1602.54,收11015.84(最低見10676.29);成交568.3億元。10月28日,周二,恒生指數暴升1580.45,收12596;成交660.5億。究竟恆指到底未? 如果假設歷史是不斷重複,我們可以參考上圖,恆指97年10月尾(又係大約10月27、28日),走勢圖其實和現在是差不多,只不過是比例不同(因為流動性大了很多)。
那麼我們可以參考上圖,97年9月,恆指開始大瀉,急速滑落到10月尾,又係大約27、28日左右,跟住就係大反彈,去到大約10天-20天線之間,時間約為97年11月4、5日左右,跟住反覆回落至11月中,但又未能跌破10月尾低位,之後又上升到12月頭,大約50天線左右。到明年1月又會下破至新低位,另外又會在明年6月及8月再創新低。
從每日成交量和每日成交金額來看,我們亦可以得到一點啟示,就是成交量和成交金額是不斷縮減,另外,成交比例現在是97年同期的2.5倍左右,未知歷史會否不斷重複呢?
1997/09/01 | 每日成交金額 (億) 348.74 | 每日成交股數 34873666094 |
1997/09/02 | 339.37 | 33937026158 |
1997/09/03 | 346.10 | 34609519968 |
1997/09/04 | 249.58 | 24957851678 |
1997/09/05 | 180.28 | 18027611665 |
1997/09/08 | 158.31 | 15830849481 |
1997/09/09 | 241.58 | 24157547723 |
1997/09/10 | 261.61 | 26160636629 |
1997/09/11 | 210.85 | 21084847882 |
1997/09/12 | 230.07 | 23007183659 |
1997/09/15 | 208.16 | 20815953528 |
1997/09/16 | 149.71 | 14971372405 |
1997/09/18 | 172.18 | 17218124169 |
1997/09/19 | 174.75 | 17475258093 |
1997/09/22 | 139.58 | 13958443504 |
1997/09/23 | 137.94 | 13793570461 |
1997/09/24 | 122.06 | 12206069126 |
1997/09/25 | 160.06 | 16005796840 |
1997/09/26 | 167.86 | 16785516297 |
1997/09/29 | 132.66 | 13266395432 |
1997/09/30 | 114.62 | 11462011745 |
1997/10/03 | 112.21 | 11221495903 |
1997/10/06 | 125.47 | 12546960532 |
1997/10/07 | 109.62 | 10962137991 |
1997/10/08 | 103.93 | 10393400766 |
1997/10/09 | 150.55 | 15055202391 |
1997/10/13 | 133.45 | 13345347688 |
1997/10/14 | 117.41 | 11741358123 |
1997/10/15 | 186.16 | 18616007742 |
1997/10/16 | 156.16 | 15616138067 |
1997/10/17 | 175.37 | 17536639878 |
1997/10/20 | 172.58 | 17258050986 |
1997/10/21 | 192.59 | 19259399771 |
1997/10/22 | 235.61 | 23560751294 |
1997/10/23 | 340.31 | 34031058714 |
1997/10/24 | 303.21 | 30321297483 |
1997/10/27 | 225.01 | 22501063800 |
1997/10/28 | 252.32 | 25231839054 |
1997/10/29 | 257.12 | 25711630418 |
1997/10/30 | 191.72 | 19172323327 |
1997/10/31 | 216.47 | 21646882700 |
1997/11/03 | 237.04 | 23703788000 |
1997/11/04 | 252.10 | 25210028841 |
1997/11/05 | 144.01 | 14401391014 |
1997/11/06 | 163.24 | 16323549512 |
1997/11/07 | 158.83 | 15882803500 |
1997/11/10 | 107.55 | 10754760344 |
1997/11/11 | 82.41 | 8241016829 |
1997/11/12 | 102.58 | 10257736540 |
1997/11/13 | 115.75 | 11575307915 |
1997/11/14 | 114.07 | 11406923051 |
1997/11/17 | 111.05 | 11105084772 |
1997/11/18 | 87.92 | 8791795659 |
1997/11/19 | 82.86 | 8286393395 |
1997/11/20 | 75.16 | 7516474277 |
1997/11/21 | 110.80 | 11079745065 |
1997/11/24 | 74.33 | 7433480696 |
1997/11/25 | 65.65 | 6564986280 |
1997/11/26 | 68.58 | 6857517593 |
1997/11/17 | 78.70 | 7870046972 |
1997/11/28 | 60.21 | 6021382359 |
1997/12/01 | 57.60 | 5759780269 |
1997/12/02 | 138.73 | 13873073381 |
1997/12/03 | 102.13 | 10213121904 |
1997/12/04 | 101.44 | 10144110767 |
1997/12/05 | 128.01 | 12800807619 |
1997/12/08 | 132.47 | 13247339850 |
1997/12/09 | 89.74 | 8974151128 |
1997/12/10 | 100.15 | 10014574101 |
1997/12/11 | 136.18 | 13617689310 |
1997/12/12 | 102.04 | 10203921427 |
1997/12/15 | 77.72 | 7771958272 |
1997/12/16 | 72.22 | 7222033109 |
1997/12/17 | 86.12 | 8611777470 |
1997/12/18 | 57.51 | 5751422276 |
1997/12/19 | 66.18 | 6617536130 |
1997/12/22 | 60.75 | 6074529071 |
1997/12/23 | 54.84 | 5484486433 |
1997/12/24 | 25.99 | 2598776602 |
1997/12/29 | 32.54 | 3253554210 |
1997/12/30 | 52.62 | 5261820779 |
1997/12/31 | 49.48 | 4948116170 |
1998/01/02 | 28.21 | 2820533251 |
1998/01/05 | 51.21 | 5120890549 |
1998/01/06 | 76.30 | 7629847513 |
1998/01/07 | 118.26 | 11825504366 |
1998/01/08 | 125.28 | 12528315924 |
1998/01/09 | 116.50 | 11650138855 |
1998/01/12 | 133.32 | 13331501039 |
1998/01/13 | 110.38 | 11038294634 |
1998/01/14 | 114.08 | 11407762476 |
1998/01/15 | 91.81 | 9181023181 |
1998/01/16 | 85.39 | 8538795947 |
1998/01/19 | 95.30 | 9529702978 |
1998/01/20 | 92.81 | 9280868743 |
1998/01/21 | 91.00 | 9100358166 |
1998/01/22 | 68.21 | 6820968848 |
1998/01/23 | 67.00 | 6699515116 |
1998/01/26 | 89.70 | 8970261892 |
1998/01/27 | 40.03 | 4003455528 |
1998/02/02 | 208.95 | 20894937555 |
1998/02/03 | 153.73 | 15373415347 |
1998/02/04 | 111.14 | 11113869803 |
1998/02/05 | 69.90 | 6990478415 |
1998/02/06 | 103.64 | 10364069906 |
1998/02/09 | 139.94 | 13993814404 |
1998/02/10 | 120.02 | 12002053205 |
1998/02/11 | 132.10 | 13210330556 |
1998/02/12 | 83.20 | 8319639638 |
1998/02/13 | 93.50 | 9350412547 |
1998/02/16 | 71.36 | 7136156918 |
1998/02/17 | 62.39 | 6238667770 |
1998/02/18 | 69.09 | 6908964761 |
1998/02/19 | 105.26 | 10526407578 |
1998/02/20 | 57.44 | 5744223741 |
1998/02/23 | 70.48 | 7048271596 |
1998/02/24 | 80.55 | 8055233488 |
1998/02/25 | 107.02 | 10702439604 |
1998/02/26 | 152.94 | 15293965833 |
1998/02/27 | 135.47 | 13547152828 |
1998/03/02 | 147.43 | 14742644422 |
1998/03/03 | 75.43 | 7542509507 |
1998/03/04 | 87.69 | 8768541756 |
1998/03/05 | 99.04 | 9904448563 |
1998/03/06 | 75.45 | 7544512866 |
1998/03/09 | 59.32 | 5932460026 |
1998/03/10 | 49.51 | 4951162318 |
1998/03/11 | 56.01 | 5601347362 |
1998/03/12 | 58.17 | 5816678530 |
1998/03/13 | 52.35 | 5235071354 |
1998/03/16 | 50.12 | 5011648244 |
1998/03/17 | 68.13 | 6812887450 |
1998/03/18 | 67.10 | 6709971504 |
1998/03/19 | 90.23 | 9022922610 |
1998/03/20 | 121.96 | 12195754734 |
1998/03/23 | 76.03 | 7602846027 |
1998/03/24 | 75.22 | 7521956655 |
1998/03/25 | 122.87 | 12287373590 |
1998/03/26 | 101.30 | 10129814252 |
1998/03/27 | 66.32 | 6632418037 |
1998/03/30 | 80.04 | 8003857263 |
1998/03/31 | 62.49 | 6249055145 |
1998/04/01 | 64.78 | 6478207596 |
1998/04/02 | 69.34 | 6933992543 |
1998/04/03 | 63.30 | 6329869022 |
1998/04/07 | 50.02 | 5002343802 |
1998/04/08 | 61.25 | 6125147953 |
1998/04/09 | 56.87 | 5686637267 |
1998/04/14 | 66.94 | 6693909079 |
1998/04/15 | 71.98 | 7198367653 |
1998/04/16 | 69.76 | 6976481797 |
1998/04/17 | 81.62 | 8162131067 |
1998/04/20 | 52.62 | 5262420012 |
1998/04/21 | 57.52 | 5751846789 |
1998/04/22 | 45.88 | 4587798435 |
1998/04/23 | 43.92 | 4392128035 |
1998/04/24 | 42.72 | 4272414523 |
1998/04/27 | 62.19 | 6218724297 |
1998/04/28 | 65.74 | 6574200865 |
1998/04/29 | 81.69 | 8168729807 |
1998/04/30 | 55.09 | 5509317332 |
1998/05/01 | 39.80 | 3980476136 |
1998/05/04 | 35.65 | 3565322005 |
1998/05/05 | 55.78 | 5577734065 |
1998/05/06 | 52.90 | 5289643141 |
1998/05/07 | 66.98 | 6698240115 |
1998/05/08 | 58.25 | 5825417775 |
1998/05/11 | 36.17 | 3616827246 |
1998/05/12 | 49.76 | 4975528372 |
1998/05/13 | 67.66 | 6765842243 |
1998/05/14 | 83.17 | 8317076430 |
1998/05/15 | 48.60 | 4859990539 |
1998/05/18 | 38.61 | 3860683311 |
1998/05/19 | 65.92 | 6591656746 |
1998/05/20 | 78.83 | 7883411221 |
1998/05/21 | 72.08 | 7208071864 |
1998/05/22 | 40.33 | 4032966968 |
1998/05/25 | 26.19 | 2618537442 |
1998/05/26 | 36.30 | 3629549321 |
1998/05/27 | 79.99 | 7999407660 |
1998/05/28 | 73.04 | 7303715780 |
1998/05/29 | 50.65 | 5064594185 |
1998/06/01 | 65.10 | 6509595357 |
1998/06/02 | 54.86 | 5485656223 |
1998/06/03 | 57.24 | 5724272221 |
1998/06/04 | 45.11 | 4510647312 |
1998/06/05 | 34.78 | 3477968464 |
1998/06/08 | 45.12 | 4512217381 |
1998/06/09 | 32.81 | 3281033735 |
1998/06/10 | 71.54 | 7154072256 |
1998/06/11 | 67.51 | 6751051882 |
1998/06/12 | 59.87 | 5987011756 |
1998/06/15 | 62.39 | 6238576198 |
1998/06/16 | 75.74 | 7573903379 |
1998/06/17 | 61.43 | 6143250450 |
1998/06/18 | 103.54 | 10353675613 |
1998/06/19 | 64.44 | 6443770609 |
1998/06/22 | 56.50 | 5650211941 |
1998/06/23 | 64.03 | 6403372473 |
1998/06/24 | 42.40 | 4239871285 |
1998/06/25 | 61.68 | 6167598654 |
1998/06/26 | 53.62 | 5361960992 |
1998/06/29 | 62.18 | 6217830722 |
1998/06/30 | 44.71 | 4470511618 |
1998/07/02 | 79.83 | 7982877498 |
1998/07/03 | 45.13 | 4513006137 |
1998/07/06 | 31.20 | 3120017633 |
1998/07/07 | 29.49 | 2948574249 |
1998/07/08 | 34.59 | 3459343175 |
1998/07/09 | 32.39 | 3239197352 |
1998/07/10 | 47.44 | 4744141087 |
1998/07/13 | 40.54 | 4053925311 |
1998/07/14 | 27.05 | 2704937681 |
1998/07/15 | 46.37 | 4637088477 |
1998/07/16 | 42.94 | 4293592332 |
1998/07/17 | 47.20 | 4720234966 |
1998/07/20 | 30.29 | 3029082608 |
1998/07/21 | 35.04 | 3503620802 |
1998/07/22 | 35.38 | 3537996015 |
1998/07/23 | 46.30 | 4629670763 |
1998/07/24 | 43.09 | 4308870953 |
1998/07/27 | 36.27 | 3627402440 |
1998/07/28 | 43.06 | 4306309758 |
1998/07/29 | 38.85 | 3885017879 |
1998/07/30 | 40.71 | 4070604919 |
1998/07/31 | 37.01 | 3700805633 |
1998/08/03 | 47.43 | 4743029989 |
1998/08/04 | 51.42 | 5142152962 |
1998/08/05 | 49.46 | 4945664839 |
1998/08/06 | 47.45 | 4744799139 |
1998/08/07 | 52.79 | 5278928173 |
1998/08/10 | 34.29 | 3429024948 |
1998/08/11 | 50.23 | 5023057792 |
1998/08/12 | 55.52 | 5552474057 |
1998/08/13 | 51.39 | 5139269948 |
1998/08/14 | 85.47 | 8547016700 |
1998/08/18 | 52.03 | 5202590643 |
1998/08/19 | 69.37 | 6936598094 |
1998/08/20 | 70.29 | 7028985508 |
1998/08/21 | 49.66 | 4966388382 |
1998/08/24 | 98.03 | 9803283708 |
1998/08/25 | 99.23 | 9922992793 |
1998/08/26 | 93.80 | 9379713730 |
1998/08/27 | 229.69 | 22968851483 |
1998/08/28 | 790.03 | 79002608619 |
1998/08/31 | 65.71 | 6571067556 |
1998/09/01 | 62.05 | 6204745111 |
1998/09/02 | 58.03 | 5802960595 |
1998/09/03 | 63.25 | 6324875680 |
1998/09/04 | 68.51 | 6851382504 |
1998/09/07 | 97.62 | 9762107427 |
1998/09/08 | 84.25 | 8425007097 |
1998/09/09 | 47.09 | 4709223006 |
1998/09/10 | 42.88 | 4287912005 |
1998/09/11 | 53.80 | 5380003470 |
1998/09/14 | 37.03 | 3703054064 |
1998/09/15 | 55.55 | 5554668089 |
1998/09/16 | 49.77 | 4977460774 |
1998/09/17 | 48.83 | 4882947724 |
1998/09/18 | 43.94 | 4394015390 |
1998/09/21 | 32.11 | 3210991287 |
1998/09/22 | 37.04 | 3704416537 |
1998/09/23 | 30.06 | 3006320441 |
1998/09/24 | 68.37 | 6836579428 |
1998/09/25 | 44.16 | 4415729124 |
1998/09/28 | 51.57 | 5157055936 |
1998/09/29 | 44.21 | 4420746964 |
1998/09/30 | 24.24 | 2424037732 |
2008/09/01 | 411.04 | 80237358690 |
2008/09/02 | 493.72 | 94502266787 |
2008/09/03 | 560.89 | 103665856810 |
2008/09/04 | 564.61 | 103261758601 |
2008/09/05 | 652.67 | 86859917688 |
2008/09/08 | 684.12 | 84295382346 |
2008/09/09 | 479.01 | 77226412654 |
2008/09/10 | 653.07 | 97600572661 |
2008/09/11 | 695.97 | 103075661001 |
2008/09/12 | 577.70 | 95332549421 |
2008/09/16 | 884.19 | 66997474797 |
2008/09/17 | 762.33 | 90308598497 |
2008/09/18 | 1022.28 | 73059002819 |
2008/09/19 | 1245.73 | 90825549420 |
2008/09/22 | 916.34 | 111495122121 |
2008/09/23 | 643.69 | 88716714542 |
2008/09/24 | 590.06 | 93744998517 |
2008/09/25 | 522.36 | 89884808244 |
2008/09/26 | 549.90 | 83530244229 |
2008/09/29 | 549.67 | 74238393304 |
2008/09/30 | 718.09 | 73951923228 |
2008/10/02 | 696.58 | 85634356936 |
2008/10/03 | 532.78 | 69106203079 |
2008/10/06 | 473.28 | 66725441346 |
2008/10/08 | 777.79 | 78498497911 |
2008/10/09 | 608.71 | 78930175535 |
2008/10/10 | 693.72 | 55568164312 |
2008/10/13 | 725.86 | 75806253318 |
2008/10/14 | 816.63 | 88994790106 |
2008/10/15 | 522.07 | 77556721048 |
2008/10/16 | 643.26 | 78879139694 |
2008/10/17 | 593.46 | 85331559253 |
2008/10/20 | 537.48 | 82082055917 |
2008/10/21 | 506.74 | 83238711466 |
2008/10/22 | 540.93 | 85704357048 |
2008/10/23 | 564.59 | 85592052116 |
2008/10/24 | 561.41 | 77680524918 |
2008/10/27 | 568.33 | 73335636114 |
2008/10/28 | 660.50 | 60704734416 |
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